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The countdown is finally over -- it's officially game week. The 2023 NFL season commences on Thursday night with the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs (-4.5) facing the upstart Lions in what's likely an action-packed appetizer for the other 15 games of the Week 1 slate. For those looking for the updated Week 1 betting odds, spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, we have you covered.Following Thursday night's kickoff game, the rest of Sunday's Week 1 slate features several must-watch matchups that could go either way (Steelers vs. 49ers, Bears vs. Packers, Eagles vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Dolphins, etc.). Then on Monday, Week 1 concludes with an AFC East battle between Aaron Rodgers and the Jets and Josh Allen and the Bills in a game that will garner plenty of betting action.Below, we'll look at the latest odds for Week 1 from and offer up a few early bets to consider. Keep in mind these lines will move throughout the week as we get updates on the playing status of key starters and betting limits increase.WEEK 1 PICKS: | GameSpreadKansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit LionsKC -4.5(-110)Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina PanthersATL -3.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston TexansBAL -10(-110)Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati BengalsCLE +2.5( Joc Pederson Jersey -110)Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville JaguarsIND +5(-110)Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay BuccaneersMIN -6(-110)New Orleans Saints vs. Tenne see TitansNO -3(-115)Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ersPIT +2.5 (-110)Washington Commanders vs. Arizona CardinalsWAS -7(-110)Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay PackersCHI -1(-110)New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia EaglesNE +4(-110)Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas RaidersDEN-3.5 (-110)Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami DolphinsLAC -3(-110)Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles RamsSEA-5.5(-110)New York Giants vs. Dallas CowboysNYG +3(-105)New York Jets vs. Buffalo BillsNYJ+2.5(-110)GameMoneylineKansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit LionsKC -225| DET+180Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina PanthersATL -185| CAR+150Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston TexansBAL -500| HOU +375Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati BengalsCIN -135| CLE+115Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville JaguarsJAX -225| IND+185Minnesota Vikings Julio Urias Jersey vs. Tampa Bay BuccaneersMIN -250 | TB+200New Orleans Saints vs. Tenne see TitansNO -175| TEN+145Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ersSF -130| PIT +110Washington Commanders vs. Arizona CardinalsWAS -300| ARI+240Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay PackersCHI -120| GB+100New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia EaglesPHI -190| NE+155Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas RaidersDEN -190| LV+155Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami DolphinsLAC -160| MIA+135Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles RamsSEA -250 | LAR+200New York Giants vs. Dallas CowboysDAL -175| NYG+145New York Jets vs. Buffalo BillsBUF -140| NYJ+115GameOver/UnderKansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions53.5Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers39.5Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans43.5Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals48Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars45.5Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers45.5New Orleans Saints vs. Tenne see Titans41.5Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers41Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals38Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers42New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles45Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders44Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins51Seattle Russell Martin Jersey Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams46New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys46.5New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills46.5 vs. RaidersDespite Ru sell Wilson having an uncharacteristic down season in his first year as a Bronco, resulting in Denver going a lackluster 7-10 ATS in 2022, we're backing the Broncos to notch at least a four-point victory in game one of the Sean Payton era. While we think the Broncos put together a more competent 2023 campaign, this is more of a fade of the Raiders. We don't think the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Raiders will generate enough scoring drives against a steady Broncos defense.Denver's pa s defense ended '22 posting the fifth-lowest dropback EPA (), so we don't think Garoppolo has much succe s through the air in his Raiders' debut. Denver's defensive weakne s last season was their inability to get to the QB, posting the seventh-worst pre sure rate (18.5%), but luckily Walker Buehler Jersey for them, Garoppolo wasn't all that succe sful as a pa ser even in a clean pocket. Jimmy G complied a subpar 69.7 clean pocket completion percentage in '22, just the 20th-best mark among qualifying QBs. Even if Denver doesn't pre sure him at a high clip, we don't think Garoppolo will consistently move the sticks through the air. vs. 49ersIt's never easy betting against the 49ers, but we're doing just that in Week 1. We expect a relatively strong season from Steelers' QB Kenny Pickett in his first full season as QB1 and feel the Steelers are undervalued in the betting market as a whole. As a result, this game should be priced closer to a pick 'em (-110 juice on both moneylines), but we understand why the 49ers sit as slight road favorites after being one win away from a trip to the Super Bowl.However, we think the Steelers will not only compete for a wild card in 2023 but have a real shot to win the competitive AFC North. Yes, the 49ers are elite at generating natural pre sure by rushing just four, but even if Pickett's under dure s, he has a knack for making positive plays under pre sure, recording the sixth-best pre sured completion percentage in his rookie year. In a game Kenta Maeda Jersey we feel is 50-50, give us the team priced with an implied win probability of 45.45 percent. at BrownsWe know, we know, Joe Burrow has a 1-4 record in his career against the Browns. Cincinnati's last trip to Cleveland, a lackluster 32-12 lo s on Halloween last season, is ingrained in our minds. However, Burrow didn't have Ja'Marr Chase in that one, and Jacoby Bri sett was Cleveland's QB1. Despite suffering a preseason calf strain, we expect Burrow to be on the field this Sunday, and although he didn't take one snap this preseason, he's gotten used to mi sing the exhibition season in his short career.Until he shows it, we're skeptical of Watson's effectivene s after a rocky end to 2022. In terms of their efficiency, relative to their expected points added last season, Bri sett (+77.0 EPA, 15th among QBs) was significantly more effective under center than Watson (-9.3 EPA, 67th). Yes, Bri sett took more snaps to rack up a higher EPA, but Watson didn't look right even in limited action. Back Burrow and the Bengals to win Sunday's rendition of the Battle of Ohio. |
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